The single, unsmoothed annual value for 2016 is also shown for comparison. (Image:Instrumental Temperature Record.png shows how 2004 relates to other recent years).
For the purposes of this comparison, the author is agnostic as to which, if any, of the reconstructions of global mean temperature is an accurate reflection of temperature fluctuations during the last 2000 years. However, since this plot is a fair representation of the range of reconstructions appearing in the published scientific literature, it is likely that such reconstructions, accurate or not, will play a significant role in the ongoing discussions of global climate change and global warming.
For each reconstruction, the raw data has been decadally smoothed with a σ = 5 yr Gaussian weighted moving average. Also, each reconstruction was adjusted so that its mean matched the mean of the instrumental record during the period of overlap. The variance (i.e. the scale of fluctuations) was not adjusted (except in one case noted below).
Pour chaque reconstruction, les données brutes ont été lissées de façon décennale avec une moyenne mobile pondérée gaussienne (σ = 5 ans). De plus, chaque reconstruction a été ajustée afin que sa moyenne corresponde à la moyenne de l'enregistrement instrumental pendant la période de chevauchement. La variance (c'est-à-dire l'échelle des fluctuations) n'a pas été ajustée (sauf dans un cas indiqué ci-dessous).
2016년의 평활하지 않은 단일 연간 값도 비교를 위해 표시됩니다(이미지:Instrument Temperature Record.png는 2004년과 다른 최근 해의 관계를 보여줍니다.)
이 비교의 목적을 위해 저자는 지구 평균 온도의 재구성이 지난 2000년 동안의 온도 변동을 정확하게 반영하는지에 대해 논증하지 않는다. 그러나 이 플롯은 발표된 과학 문헌에 나타난 재구성 범위를 공정하게 나타낸 것이므로, 정확하든 그렇지 않든 이러한 재구성은 지구 기후 변화와 지구 온난화에 대한 지속적인 논의에서 중요한 역할을 할 가능성이 높다.
