HIV/AIDS is one of the most serious health concerns in South Africa. The country has the highest number of people afflicted with HIV of any country, and the fourth-highest adult HIV prevalence rate, according to the 2019 United Nations statistics.[1]
According to a UNAIDS dataset sourced from the World Bank, in 2019 the HIV prevalence rate for adults aged 15 to 49 was 27% in Eswatini (Swaziland), 25% in Lesotho, 25% in Botswana and 19% in South Africa.[1]
HIV prevalence does not indicate that a country has an AIDS crisis, as HIV and AIDS are separate conditions. HIV prevalence, instead, indicates that people remain alive, despite the infection. South Africa has the largest HIV treatment programme in the world.[2]
HIV prevalence rates reflect the rate of HIV infection in each country's population. Low national prevalence rates can be misleading, however. They often disguise epidemics that are initially concentrated in certain localities or population groups and threaten to spill over into the wider population. In many developing countries most new infections occur in young adults, with young women especially vulnerable.
Data on HIV are from the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAids). Changes in procedures and assumptions for estimating the data and better coordination with countries have resulted in improved estimates of HIV and AIDS. The models, which are routinely updated, track the course of HIV epidemics and their impact, making full use of information in HIV prevalence trends from surveillance data as well as survey data. The models take into account reduced infectivity among people receiving antiretroviral therapy (which is having a larger impact on HIV prevalence and allowing HIV-positive people to live longer) and allow for changes in urbanization over time in generalized epidemics. The estimates include plausibility bounds, which reflect the certainty associated with each of the estimates.[3]
South Africa's HIV treatment programme was launched in earnest in 2005.[4] The trend in South Africa's HIV and AIDS statistics has changed significantly in the years since then.[5]